Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 19.555542 22.706160 26.481951 31.426304 37.865260 46.170980 5.806172e+01
2025-01-26 17.632500 22.028295 27.946189 36.866259 50.729222 73.048440 1.160808e+02
2025-02-02 15.793964 20.635255 27.651255 39.289495 59.923722 99.937314 2.038735e+02
2025-02-09 13.536875 18.121511 25.042674 37.179928 60.522055 111.846665 2.805292e+02
2025-02-16 12.561316 17.276698 24.732154 38.687484 68.363918 145.621317 5.159147e+02
2025-02-23 11.514631 16.143785 23.710710 38.579646 72.791179 175.729608 9.158755e+02
2025-03-02 10.642948 15.162610 22.761462 38.336367 76.825159 210.355732 1.825082e+03
2025-03-09 10.024873 14.512483 22.275133 38.896654 83.269203 265.405456 5.766289e+03
2025-03-16 9.215474 13.453455 20.895694 37.212345 82.694899 289.367873 1.590269e+04
2025-03-23 8.707177 12.857121 20.296322 37.150194 87.124730 352.661310 3.692111e+06
2025-03-30 8.044496 11.935519 18.971412 35.136797 84.386997 365.974849 NaN
2025-04-06 7.410042 11.019688 17.574389 32.737872 79.559210 357.465896 NaN
2025-04-13 6.844557 10.215763 16.378193 30.789439 76.249571 363.151567 NaN
2025-04-20 7.036256 10.774572 17.939190 36.078280 103.574371 852.348077 NaN
2025-04-27 6.919269 10.755522 18.317528 38.423655 121.959502 1666.248611 NaN
2025-05-04 6.472969 10.084226 17.232729 36.381517 117.335636 1764.335767 NaN
2025-05-11 6.324244 9.965425 17.330746 37.841077 133.052056 3754.032217 NaN
2025-05-18 6.078917 9.642006 16.940500 37.736702 140.015479 6746.481413 NaN
2025-05-25 5.845551 9.325720 16.534162 37.501218 146.287499 13933.611944 NaN
2025-06-01 5.678089 9.127074 16.375697 38.043518 159.048946 79426.799308 NaN
2025-06-08 5.395679 8.683870 15.611178 36.412911 154.049444 126146.401580 NaN
2025-06-15 5.223079 8.450432 15.319493 36.352720 162.011915 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 4.956658 8.015583 14.520145 34.401992 152.582902 NaN NaN